Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f9d…3b32 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$137
sports 18% +$56
world 9% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +35.5% +22.6% 38% 33% -12.5%
≤30d 39 +35.5% +22.6% 38% 33% -12.5%
≤90d 39 +35.5% +22.6% 38% 33% -12.5%
all 39 +35.5% +22.6% 38% 33% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.6% 33% -12.5%
10% +10.9% 31% -20.9%
15% +0.2% 31% -28.5%
20% -9.7% 26% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +134% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$28 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage5d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $36 +$25 +71%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -24%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$21 -81%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 +$31 +51%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $24 −$23 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $152 +$5 +4%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $27 −$20 -76%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$8 +81%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $232 −$149 -64%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$10 -62%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 −$32 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $77 −$75 -98%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $164 +$28 +17%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$27 +177%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $56 −$10 -18%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $123 −$120 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 −$26 -63%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +81%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$22 +144%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$2 -17%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 +$155 +431%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$128 +42%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $169 +$61 +36%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$109 +2118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $61 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 2h
Mexico leading at halftime? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 2h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 2h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2h
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 5h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 5h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 5h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 32¢ $31 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $91 7h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 8h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $24 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 49¢ $158 24h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $152 24h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 24h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 25h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 25h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 25h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $18 27h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $114 30h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records