Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6F 0x6f9f…fdfc sports 334 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
Total PnL +$4,222 (+6%) realized +$1,546 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%175W / 159L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$411est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$134
14 days+$589
30 days+$1,697
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,566
other 0% −$3
crypto 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -27.2% -34.2% 45% 40% -8.5%
≤30d 92 -22.8% -30.2% 50% 45% -5.4%
≤90d 319 -17.9% -25.7% 52% 49% -8.0%
all 334 -18.2% -26.0% 52% 49% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 49% -7.3%
10% -33.1% 39% -16.2%
15% -39.5% 27% -24.3%
20% -45.5% 18% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$68 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,546
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses175 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$411
Open positions0
Markets (closed)334 / 334
History coverage99d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 334 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Gen.G 75¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI HANJIN BRION 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Under 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Weibo Gaming 64¢ 0¢ $321 $0 −$321 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Kaufland Hangry Knights vs Eintracht Frankfurt (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Season Eintracht Frankfurt 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana LNG Esports 47¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Team WE 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Anyones Legend 77¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Team Vitality 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Misa Esports 59¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2 Top Esports 58¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Team Vitality 31¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs ThunderTalk Gaming 13¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Nongshim Red Force 68¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Fnatic 34¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
LoL: Supernova vs CCG Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular Season Supernova 20¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Invictus Gaming 40¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Vitality.Bee (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Vitality.Bee 43¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Under 35¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Team Heretics Academy 65¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Top Esports 48¢ 0¢ $128 $0 −$128 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2 Team WE 63¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana ThunderTalk Gaming 47¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Misa Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Karmine Corp Blue 38¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $67 +$28 +42%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $312 −$242 -78%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $148 −$66 -44%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $87 −$86 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5,312 +$414 +8%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $3,009 +$321 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$28 +109%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $337 −$3 -1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $613 −$604 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $151 +$63 +41%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $131 +$55 +42%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $2,236 +$574 +26%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $30 +$36 +119%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $1,120 +$421 +38%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $302 +$108 +36%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $304 −$228 -75%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $90 −$88 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $152 +$102 +67%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $1,346 −$5 -0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $3,024 −$5 -0%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $167 +$47 +28%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $1,004 +$132 +13%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $102 −$69 -68%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $51 +$190 +372%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $20 +$40 +197%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $302 +$73 +24%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $134 +$94 +70%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $1,291 +$122 +10%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $20 −$10 -49%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $2,309 +$351 +15%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $602 +$65 +11%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 29 $403 +$103 +26%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $3,008 +$285 +10%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $1,007 +$274 +27%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 100¢ $62 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 53¢ $33 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 35¢ $34 12h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 53¢ $67 13h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY RED Canids 56¢ $203 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $110 14h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $121 14h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 39¢ $20 16h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 66¢ $72 16h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 66¢ $81 17h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 30¢ $67 25h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 71¢ $224 25h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 30¢ $67 25h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 31¢ $20 28h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 53¢ $67 36h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 36h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $5,726 36h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 95¢ $2,003 40h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 100¢ $3,330 40h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 91¢ $3,309 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 90¢ $3,009 2d
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY WLGaming Esports 5¢ $3 2d
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY WLGaming Esports 10¢ $1 2d
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C SELL G2 NORD 93¢ $340 2d
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY G2 NORD 91¢ $334 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $162 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 636 history records