Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6F 0x6f9f…d7e4 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$143 (+2%) realized +$143 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate100%13W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$730per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$128
crypto 19% +$2
other 19% +$2
culture 9% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +4.9% -5.1% 100% 33% -5.8%
≤90d 13 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 8% -8.3%
all 13 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 8% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 8% -8.3%
10% -17.1% 0% -17.0%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.0%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$143
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses13 / 0
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage85d
Avg bet$730
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $972 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $971 +$1 +0%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $754 +$109 +14%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 15? May 17 $862 +$1 +0%
Rockets vs. Lakers May 01 $853 +$8 +1%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 28 $852 +$1 +0%
Will "Anaconda" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Apr 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will "A Quiet Place Part II" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Apr 22 $275 $0 +0%
Will "Untold: Jail Blazers" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Apr 22 $537 +$1 +0%
Jazz vs. Lakers Apr 13 $850 +$1 +0%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $844 +$6 +1%
Pacers vs. Hornets Apr 04 $842 +$2 +0%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Mar 31 $841 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records