Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:43:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6F 0x6fa0…3609 world 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$209 (+7%) realized +$162 · open +$47
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate70%19W / 8L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$480now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% +$208
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 10 -6.5% -15.4% 70% 10% -5.4%
≤90d 19 -6.5% -15.4% 74% 26% -1.6%
all 27 -4.7% -13.8% 70% 26% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 26% -3.7%
10% -22.0% 7% -13.0%
15% -29.6% 4% -21.4%
20% -36.5% 4% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$480
Realized+$162
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses19 / 8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 30
History coverage154d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $330 $356 +$26 (+8%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 92¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Jun 24 $50 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Jun 09 $100 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31? Jun 04 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $390 +$8 +2%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? Jun 01 $75 +$3 +4%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$21 +21%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 29 $6 −$1 -22%
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31? May 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30? May 09 $150 +$34 +23%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by May 31, 2026? May 01 $150 +$7 +4%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026? May 01 $49 +$2 +5%
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30? May 01 $228 +$12 +5%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? Apr 27 $270 +$56 +21%
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30? Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? Apr 01 $179 +$32 +18%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $90 +$59 +66%
Will Russia enter Svitle by April 30? Mar 16 $95 −$27 -29%
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by March 31? Mar 14 $99 −$4 -4%
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? Mar 13 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? Mar 02 $71 +$8 +11%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? Feb 02 $20 $0 +2%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 28 $10 $0 +2%
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? Jan 28 $10 +$1 +11%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 24 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $51 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $3 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $50 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $9 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $10 12d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $100 13d
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? SELL No 89¢ $100 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $80 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $200 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $50 19d
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? BUY No 89¢ $100 19d
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31? SELL No 87¢ $53 19d
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31? BUY No 82¢ $50 23d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $52 23d
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $105 23d
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $121 23d
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? BUY No 12¢ $1 25d
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? SELL No 13¢ $5 25d
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? BUY No 14¢ $5 25d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $50 28d
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $53 29d
Will Russia capture Bilytske by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 32d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $27 32d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $25 35d
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? BUY No 65¢ $50 36d
Will Russia capture Bilytske by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $150 42d
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $50 42d
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $50 42d
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $184 45d
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $100 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $480.28 · official $480.28 (match) · 73 history records