Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:58:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6F 0x6fa1…c963 other 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+6%) realized +$43 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$428now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$46
sports 4% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +4.0% -5.9% 45% 36% +0.5%
≤30d 11 +4.0% -5.9% 45% 36% +0.5%
≤90d 11 +4.0% -5.9% 45% 36% +0.5%
all 11 +4.0% -5.9% 45% 36% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 36% +0.5%
10% -14.9% 18% -9.1%
15% -23.1% 18% -17.9%
20% -30.7% 9% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$8 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$428
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)11 / 19
History coverage24d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $136 $145 +$9 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $78 $72 −$6 (-8%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $55 $52 −$3 (-6%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 55¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $34 +$13 +39%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $16 −$2 -14%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 −$10 -64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $45 −$33 -74%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $38 +$8 +20%
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $41 −$3 -7%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $47 +$61 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $14 +$2 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $48 6m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $3 15m
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 16m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $11 16m
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $11 21m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 43m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $11 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 3¢ $12 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 10h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $38 23h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 48¢ $38 23h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $22 34h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $19 44h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $25 44h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 44h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 44h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 2d
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $41 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $428.45 · official $428.30 (match) · 79 history records