Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:06:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6F 0x6fa4…f5b4 crypto 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$297 (-2%) realized −$297 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate57%53W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$118
7 days−$116
14 days−$116
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$16
world 23% +$75
crypto 19% −$481
politics 14% $0
tech 11% +$13
economics 5% $0
sports 2% +$29
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -38.0% -43.9% 50% 17% -30.3%
≤30d 6 -38.0% -43.9% 50% 17% -30.3%
≤90d 19 -10.1% -18.7% 63% 11% -12.0%
all 93 -4.3% -13.4% 57% 13% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 13% -12.1%
10% -21.7% 13% -20.5%
15% -29.3% 11% -28.2%
20% -36.2% 10% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$25 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$297
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses53 / 40
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)93 / 93
History coverage260d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 93 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$36 +70%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 19 $200 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? May 23 $200 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? May 15 $200 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $200 −$2 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 13 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 29 $200 +$10 +5%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 20 $100 $0 -0%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 19 $100 +$27 +27%
USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 18 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 15 $100 +$1 +1%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Apr 12 $100 $0 -0%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 10 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the DHS shutdown last 48 days or more? Apr 03 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 30 $220 +$2 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Mar 25 $100 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026? Mar 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 20 $100 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? Mar 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $100 +$49 +49%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Mar 08 $100 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 07 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 02 $100 +$1 +2%
Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? Feb 26 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Feb 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Feb 20 $200 +$174 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Feb 19 $30 +$29 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Feb 19 $20 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Feb 18 $20 +$17 +86%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 18 $200 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Feb 18 $50 +$48 +97%
Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, Feb 15 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Feb 15 $60 +$49 +82%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Feb 15 $100 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Feb 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, Feb 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Will there be at least 800 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2 Feb 13 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $0 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 4h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic 82¢ $102 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 80¢ $101 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $200 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 11d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $200 33d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $200 40d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? SELL No 100¢ $200 40d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $200 42d
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $198 42d
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $200 42d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $202 42d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $200 53d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $210 56d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 66d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 66d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 67d
Warriors vs. Suns BUY Suns 78¢ $100 68d
USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 98¢ $202 68d
USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 70d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 98¢ $101 70d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $100 73d
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 96¢ $100 73d
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 76d
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 95¢ $99 76d
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 201 history records