Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:17:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fa7…785a crypto 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$409 (-9%) realized −$413 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate51%55W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$242now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$342
other 7% −$25
sports 3% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 107 -12.5% -20.9% 51% 36% -19.7%
all 107 -12.5% -20.9% 51% 36% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 36% -19.7%
10% -28.4% 25% -27.4%
15% -35.3% 17% -34.4%
20% -41.7% 16% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$30 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$242
Realized−$413
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses55 / 52
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)107 / 111
History coverage83d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 58¢ 72¢ $24 $30 +$6 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 13 $64 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 13 $116 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 13 $115 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 13 $10 +$18 +179%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 13 $5 +$21 +417%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 13 $67 +$10 +15%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 11 $10 +$3 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 11 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 11 $5 $0 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 11 $15 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 11 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 11 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 11 $52 +$11 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 11 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 11 $5 +$11 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 11 $39 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 10 $36 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 10 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 10 $32 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 10 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 10 $70 +$56 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 10 $64 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 10 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 09 $75 −$73 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 09 $48 +$32 +66%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $26 +$22 +86%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Liverpool FC? Apr 08 $19 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Liverpool FC? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 08 $20 −$19 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 08 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 08 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $19 +$12 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 04 $19 $0 +2%
Raptors vs. Celtics Apr 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Wizards vs. Heat Apr 04 $9 −$9 -97%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 04 $15 −$15 -97%
Grizzlies vs. Bucks Apr 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Suns vs. Bulls Apr 04 $30 −$29 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 58¢ $24 34m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $66 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $64 63d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $40 63d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $20 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $125 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $86 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $30 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $116 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $115 63d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 63d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $9 63d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $10 63d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 63d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 63d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $77 63d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $67 63d
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 64d
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 64d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 64d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.52 · official $241.52 (match) · 284 history records