Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:18:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fa7…8ba1 politics 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%4W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% $0
other 28% $0
sports 16% $0
crypto 8% $0
economics 8% $0
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 -0.0% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 24 -0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses4 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage132d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $115 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $115 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $115 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $115 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 18 $115 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $115 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? May 09 $115 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 18 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $117 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $117 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $117 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $117 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $117 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $117 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $117 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 13 $117 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $233 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 06 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $116 $0 +0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 24 $116 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $116 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $117 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $115 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $115 12h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $115 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $115 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $115 20d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $115 21d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $115 31d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $115 31d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $115 34d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $115 40d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $115 41d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $115 42d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $115 42d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $115 48d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $115 48d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $115 50d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $115 51d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $116 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $116 72d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $116 75d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $117 76d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $117 80d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $117 80d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $117 85d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $117 86d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $117 91d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $117 91d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $117 98d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $117 99d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $117 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records