Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:52:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6F 0x6fa9…dd08 crypto 309 markets active 1h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$49 (+0%) realized +$49 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%296W / 12L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% +$10
sports 36% +$22
other 20% +$15
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 60 +0.1% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.5%
all 308 +0.6% -9.0% 96% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 1% -9.3%
10% -17.7% 1% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.28 per $1 lost it wins $4.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses296 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)308 / 309
History coverage208d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 308 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 25? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $128 $128 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 22? Jun 22 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 20? Jun 20 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 18? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.70 and $0.80 on June 15? Jun 15 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 9? Jun 14 $127 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 08 $127 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-05-31? Jun 07 $127 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 31 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 27? May 28 $116 $0 +0%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on May 25? May 26 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 22? May 24 $124 $0 +0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 17? May 21 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 13? May 15 $126 $0 +0%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-09? May 12 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 8? May 09 $125 $0 +0%
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $34 $0 +1%
Will Swansea City AFC win on 2026-05-02? May 04 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on May 1? May 02 $125 $0 +0%
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? Apr 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 28? Apr 30 $110 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays Apr 27 $125 $0 +0%
Madrid Open: Janice Tjen vs Alina Charaeva Apr 22 $123 +$1 +1%
Madrid Open: Talia Gibson vs Emiliana Arango Apr 22 $119 +$1 +1%
Madrid Open: Anhelina Kalinina vs Kamilla Rakhimova Apr 22 $134 −$15 -11%
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $136 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on April 21? Apr 21 $130 $0 +0%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 20 $134 $0 +0%
Will "Trust Me: The False Prophet" be the top global Netflix show this Apr 18 $127 +$1 +0%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-04-12? Apr 14 $133 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $910 +$4 +0%
Will Viking FK win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $110 +$3 +2%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $127 $0 +0%
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $126 $0 +0%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Apr 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on April 10? Apr 11 $122 $0 +0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays Apr 09 $120 $0 +0%
Will "Beauty in Black: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this w Apr 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on April 7? Apr 09 $117 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. Penguins Apr 06 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on April 5? Apr 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will FK Jablonec win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $125 $0 +0%
Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $238 $0 +0%
Will Göztepe SK win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $119 +$1 +0%
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $95 $0 +0%
Bulls vs. Knicks Apr 04 $310 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $128 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 100¢ $128 34h
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 3d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $123 5d
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $12 6d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.70 and $0.80 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $113 9d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $127 16d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 17d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 23d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $55 23d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $20 26d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $26 26d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $9 26d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $116 29d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 29d
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 29d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $119 31d
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 31d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $124 33d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 100¢ $126 34d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $126 39d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $126 42d
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 100¢ $118 45d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $125 48d
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2026-05-04? SELL Yes 85¢ $34 50d
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 84¢ $34 50d
Will Swansea City AFC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 52d
Will Swansea City AFC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 100¢ $110 52d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $125 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.94 · official $127.94 (match) · 737 history records