Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6F 0x6fae…15c6 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$175 (+17%) realized +$173 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days+$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$74
other 36% −$20
tech 10% +$41
sports 7% +$78
finance 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +17.9% +6.7% 31% 31% +5.5%
≤30d 19 +19.1% +7.8% 42% 42% +9.2%
≤90d 24 +12.9% +2.1% 42% 42% +6.5%
all 24 +12.9% +2.1% 42% 42% +6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 42% +6.5%
10% -7.7% 29% -3.7%
15% -16.6% 29% -13.0%
20% -24.8% 12% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$12 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$173
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage86d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$101 +982%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$13 +62%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 28 $100 +$18 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 28 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 28 $100 +$41 +41%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $100 +$49 +49%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 02 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 02 $9 −$9 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 26 $10 −$1 -7%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $111 −$19 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 46h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 46h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 46h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 95¢ $26 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 95¢ $7 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $100 55d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $100 66d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 85¢ $100 66d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 71d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 75d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 82d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $9 83d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $92 83d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 83¢ $50 84d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 85d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $100 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.05 · official $102.05 (match) · 45 history records