Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:14:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6F 0x6faf…de48 sports 241 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,759 (-10%) realized −$2,737 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%75W / 161L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$292est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$1,367
14 days−$2,933
30 days−$3,752
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$2,632
other 29% −$26
world 7% −$901
crypto 2% −$176
politics 0% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -17.5% -25.4% 31% 31% -29.1%
≤30d 146 -21.8% -29.2% 31% 31% -25.4%
≤90d 203 -16.9% -24.8% 33% 32% -21.8%
all 236 -11.3% -19.8% 32% 31% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 31% -22.0%
10% -27.5% 31% -29.4%
15% -34.5% 30% -36.3%
20% -40.9% 28% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$87 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized−$2,737
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses75 / 161
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$292
Open positions3
Markets (closed)236 / 241
History coverage170d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 30¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $103 −$48 -46%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $206 −$146 -71%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $78 −$70 -91%
Gio Reyna: 1+ goals Jun 26 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $103 +$99 +97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $113 +$97 +86%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $137 +$82 +60%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $234 +$72 +31%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $113 −$63 -56%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $103 +$155 +150%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $143 +$100 +70%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $185 +$45 +25%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $103 −$103 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $139 +$152 +110%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $103 +$96 +93%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $103 −$75 -73%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $89 −$8 -9%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 24 $108 +$86 +80%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $195 −$195 -100%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Luis Díaz: 2+ goals Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $77 −$16 -21%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $204 −$65 -32%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$40 +382%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $103 +$92 +90%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $26 +$59 +228%
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $125 −$125 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $103 −$16 -15%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $97 +$184 +190%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $103 +$151 +146%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $106 −$106 -100%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 22 $108 +$92 +85%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $164 −$164 -100%
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $139 −$139 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $129 −$129 -100%
Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $52 −$42 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 25¢ $55 43m
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $103 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 20¢ $103 5h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Over 29¢ $60 5h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 2¢ $7 5h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $103 6h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 20¢ $78 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $202 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $209 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $113 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $52 23h
Gio Reyna: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $62 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $103 24h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL 91¢ $219 24h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 93¢ $306 25h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 24¢ $50 25h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $234 26h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $113 26h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY 56¢ $137 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $258 27h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $243 27h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 85¢ $230 27h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 66¢ $185 29h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $143 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 38¢ $103 30h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 38¢ $103 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 44¢ $103 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $290 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.67 · official $202.98 (match) · 653 history records