Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:06:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6F
0x6fb1…9319
weather · 338 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2,825 +33%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,527 · open +$63
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$328
Realized+$1,527
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses87 / 234
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)321 / 338
History coverage37d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day92.1
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 18 History 321 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days+$711
14 days+$687
30 days+$1,358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Yes 21¢ 96¢ $40 $182 +$142 (+354%)
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Yes 60¢ 100¢ $54 $91 +$36 (+67%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $32 $28 −$4 (-12%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $28 $9 −$19 (-67%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+82%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $23 $7 −$17 (-72%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-87%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 9? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 23? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026? No 18¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $23 +$72 +313%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$7 -28%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $15 +$92 +611%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $23 −$12 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $19 −$12 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $79 −$22 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$4 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $55 −$36 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $28 −$12 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$11 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 −$20 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$38 +260%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $48 −$5 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $20 −$19 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $98 +$94 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $62 +$188 +301%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $38 +$16 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 −$3 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $0 +$1 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $53 −$18 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 11 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $44 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $46 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $55 −$24 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $27 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 −$17 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$39 +371%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $29 −$29 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $29 +$135 +464%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $54 −$7 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $49 +$211 +435%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $23 +$82 +355%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 74% +$1,132
other 26% +$479
sports 0% −$7
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 60¢ $13 14m
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 60¢ $29 23m
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 23m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 38¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 35¢ $12 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +25.4% +13.5% 22% 22% +52.3%
≤30d 281 +26.0% +14.0% 26% 24% +15.6%
≤90d 321 +27.9% +15.7% 27% 25% +15.0%
all 321 +27.9% +15.7% 27% 25% +15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover92.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.7% 25% +15.0%
10% ← realistic here +4.6% 23% +4.0%
15% -5.5% 21% -6.1%
20% -14.7% 20% -15.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $327.61 · official $327.61 (match) · 3500 history records