Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:53:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6F 0x6fb1…0073 sports 1109 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$531 (+4%) realized +$514 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%568W / 536L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$133est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$73
14 days+$370
30 days+$372
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$404
other 2% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +13.4% +2.6% 73% 60% +4.8%
≤30d 88 +21.2% +9.6% 66% 64% +4.5%
≤90d 607 -0.9% -10.4% 50% 49% -7.4%
all 1104 +3.9% -6.0% 51% 51% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 51% -6.3%
10% -15.0% 50% -15.2%
15% -23.2% 49% -23.4%
20% -30.7% 46% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$514
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses568 / 536
Est. fees paid−$133
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1104 / 1109
History coverage109d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 79¢ 78¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Card) Ikram Aliskerov 71¢ 70¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 80¢ 78¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $29 +$19 (+188%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Andy Pages: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $20 +$4 +21%
Austin Martin: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $23 +$2 +8%
Nick Gonzales: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $21 +$2 +8%
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $12 +$2 +17%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 23 $31 +$44 +146%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $33 +$29 +86%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $41 +$28 +70%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 20 $30 −$30 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $37 +$21 +57%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 175.5 Jun 20 $32 +$33 +101%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 20 $35 −$35 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $35 +$26 +73%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic Jun 18 $50 +$6 +12%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$97 +474%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $31 +$7 +23%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $35 +$19 +55%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $32 +$6 +20%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $40 +$14 +36%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $35 +$27 +76%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $12 +$12 +101%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $36 +$36 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $35 +$20 +57%
1H Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Jun 14 $60 +$10 +16%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Bos Jun 13 $15 +$13 +83%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 13 $34 −$34 -99%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $9 +$6 +70%
Potapova vs. Lamens: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $14 +$10 +70%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $17 +$18 +105%
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $31 +$38 +124%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 13 $36 +$34 +97%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 13 $36 −$35 -99%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 169.5 Jun 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $16 +$16 +97%
1H Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 10 $28 +$7 +24%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 10 $24 +$13 +55%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 10 $28 +$10 +34%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 10 $30 +$31 +101%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $35 +$28 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 08 $30 −$30 -99%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $31 −$30 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 08 $28 −$28 -98%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 08 $30 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 08 $18 −$18 -97%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 07 $30 −$30 -99%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 07 $21 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $40 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Under 45¢ $30 9h
Andy Pages: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 82¢ $20 9h
Nick Gonzales: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 92¢ $21 9h
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals BUY No 85¢ $12 9h
Austin Martin: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 92¢ $23 9h
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 79¢ $50 2d
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 71¢ $40 2d
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 40¢ $31 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 45¢ $30 3d
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 53¢ $33 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Alexandra Eala 57¢ $35 3d
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 175.5 BUY Over 49¢ $32 4d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. BUY No 54¢ $30 4d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 58¢ $41 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 57¢ $35 5d
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Darja Vidmanova 89¢ $50 6d
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 63¢ $37 6d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 56¢ $35 9d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY No 83¢ $32 9d
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Michael Aswell 74¢ $40 9d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY No 81¢ $31 10d
1H Spread: Knicks (-11.5) BUY Spurs 86¢ $60 10d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 BUY No 49¢ $36 10d
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 BUY Yes 49¢ $12 10d
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 81¢ $40 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 63¢ $35 10d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 51¢ $34 10d
1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 73¢ $10 10d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Bos BUY No 54¢ $15 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.40 · official $157.40 (match) · 1811 history records