Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:58:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fb2…bd2d sports 453 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (106 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$789 (-1%) realized +$88 · open −$877
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%256W / 193L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day105.6pace
Fees−$1,123est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days−$6,446
14 days−$12,857
30 days−$1,789
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,493
other 0% −$43
weather 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (106 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -25.3% -32.4% 44% 43% -41.1%
≤30d 399 -2.1% -11.4% 57% 56% -11.3%
≤90d 449 -0.6% -10.0% 57% 55% -11.1%
all 449 -0.6% -10.0% 57% 55% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 55% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 52% -19.6%
15% -26.5% 43% -27.4%
20% -33.7% 33% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$193 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$88
Unrealized−$877
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses256 / 193
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,123
Open positions4
Markets (closed)449 / 453
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$211
Trades / day105.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 449 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 45¢ 0¢ $163 $2 −$162 (-99%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 75¢ 0¢ $332 $0 −$332 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 69¢ 0¢ $283 $0 −$283 (-100%)
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Refuser 80¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $227 +$96 +42%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $119 +$81 +68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $204 +$368 +180%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $199 −$198 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $184 −$181 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $121 −$119 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $253 −$250 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $153 −$151 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $236 −$2 -1%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $109 −$7 -7%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $134 +$34 +25%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 +$125 +123%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 +$48 +48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $41 +$38 +94%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $18 −$2 -12%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,007 +$274 +27%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1,005 −$984 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,006 −$1,000 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,005 −$1,000 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $215 −$213 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,003 +$141 +14%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $109 −$107 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,012 +$683 +67%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,088 −$1,080 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1,336 −$1,313 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,103 −$1,093 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $138 −$136 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $909 +$889 +98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,048 −$1,039 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $503 +$293 +58%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $179 +$156 +87%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $166 −$163 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $19 −$18 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $439 −$433 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $212 −$209 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $446 −$441 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $71 −$71 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $266 −$262 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $389 +$128 +33%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $295 +$147 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $112 +$211 +188%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $98 +$92 +94%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $197 +$189 +96%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $456 +$442 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $323 13m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $28 30m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 46¢ $17 30m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 46¢ $4 30m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 46¢ $17 30m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 49¢ $25 30m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 45¢ $4 31m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 45¢ $5 31m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 45¢ $55 31m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 47¢ $10 32m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 68¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 61¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 59¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 62¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 97¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 60¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 64¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 98¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 65¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 98¢ $51 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $4 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $25 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $46 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $17 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $69 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 75¢ $15 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 75¢ $13 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $42 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 87¢ $104 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $21 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.30 · official $2.30 (match) · 3500 history records