Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:35:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6F 0x6fb3…2d0e other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$79 (+3%) realized +$80 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$869now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days−$150
14 days−$150
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$26
world 22% +$210
crypto 13% +$36
tech 10% −$124
finance 8% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +13.3% +2.5% 36% 36% -30.6%
≤30d 13 +8.1% -2.2% 31% 31% -30.5%
≤90d 27 +5.9% -4.2% 48% 41% -7.1%
all 27 +5.9% -4.2% 48% 41% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 41% -7.1%
10% -13.4% 30% -16.0%
15% -21.7% 26% -24.1%
20% -29.4% 22% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$28 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$869
Realized+$80
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)27 / 33
History coverage100d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$15 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $10 +$67 +650%
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? Jun 17 $300 −$124 -41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $84 +$44 +52%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $10 −$1 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $5 −$1 -26%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 07 $105 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 07 $200 +$41 +20%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 07 $200 +$44 +22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? Apr 24 $100 −$31 -31%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Apr 22 $100 −$10 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 22 $40 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 21 $100 +$52 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 19 $30 +$23 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 19 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 19 $100 +$12 +12%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $200 +$90 +45%
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31? Apr 07 $62 +$38 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $70 1h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes $5 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 26¢ $51 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 23¢ $51 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 20h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 20h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 26h
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? SELL No 37¢ $176 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $84 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 4d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? SELL Yes $9 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? SELL Yes $4 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? BUY Yes $10 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? BUY Yes $5 24d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $105 42d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $105 43d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? SELL Yes $41 55d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL Yes $48 57d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL Yes $42 57d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? SELL Yes $27 57d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $869.23 · official $971.32 · 68 history records