trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | +13.3% | +2.5% | 36% | 36% | -30.6% |
| ≤30d | 13 | +8.1% | -2.2% | 31% | 31% | -30.5% |
| ≤90d | 27 | +5.9% | -4.2% | 48% | 41% | -7.1% |
| all | 27 | +5.9% | -4.2% | 48% | 41% | -7.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -4.2% | 41% | -7.1% |
| 10% | -13.4% | 30% | -16.0% |
| 15% | -21.7% | 26% | -24.1% |
| 20% | -29.4% | 22% | -31.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win on 2026-06-27? | Yes | 77¢ | 78¢ | $500 | $503 | +$3 (+1%) |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | Yes | 63¢ | 64¢ | $200 | $202 | +$2 (+1%) |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | Yes | 48¢ | 46¢ | $100 | $95 | −$5 (-5%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? | Yes | 89¢ | 88¢ | $70 | $70 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? | Jun 19 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $50 | +$15 | +29% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $30 | +$17 | +57% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? | Jun 18 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 18 | $71 | −$71 | -100% |
| Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? | Jun 18 | $10 | +$67 | +650% |
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | Jun 17 | $300 | −$124 | -41% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $84 | +$44 | +52% |
| Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? | Jun 17 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 17 | $41 | −$41 | -100% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? | May 25 | $10 | −$1 | -14% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? | May 25 | $5 | −$1 | -26% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | May 07 | $105 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | May 07 | $200 | +$41 | +20% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | May 07 | $200 | +$44 | +22% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? | Apr 24 | $100 | −$31 | -31% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? | Apr 22 | $100 | −$10 | -10% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? | Apr 22 | $40 | −$2 | -4% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET | Apr 21 | $100 | +$52 | +52% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET | Apr 20 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET | Apr 19 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET | Apr 19 | $30 | +$23 | +76% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET | Apr 19 | $101 | +$9 | +9% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET | Apr 19 | $100 | +$12 | +12% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 07 | $200 | +$90 | +45% |
| Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31? | Apr 07 | $62 | +$38 | +61% |