Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:22:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fb4…d30c world 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%28W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$3
world 33% −$16
sports 21% +$3
politics 7% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 30% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 34 -0.3% -9.8% 35% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 47 -0.4% -9.9% 34% 0% -9.8%
all 84 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses28 / 56
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage316d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $76 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $7 +$1 +10%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $139 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $154 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $69 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $70 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $88 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $203 −$3 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $71 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $49 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $79 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $71 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $68 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $74 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $71 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $70 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $73 −$2 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $246 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $227 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $27 −$1 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $73 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $78 −$5 -7%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $78 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $85 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $169 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $153 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $75 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $77 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $1 $0 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $91 −$6 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $78 −$2 -2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $86 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $50 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $56 −$2 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $5 $0 -4%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $105 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $69 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $587 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $75 +$1 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $644 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $583 +$3 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $582 +$1 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $3 $0 -2%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 18 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $76 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $58 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $10 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $68 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $15 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $53 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $69 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $69 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $70 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $43 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $26 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $18 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $68 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $71 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $71 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $71 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $11 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $60 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $71 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.78 · official $75.39 (match) · 333 history records