Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:07:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fba…620e world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 91% −$11
other 7% +$1
politics 2% +$3
sports 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 30% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 32 -3.7% -12.8% 28% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 38 -4.4% -13.5% 29% 3% -9.8%
all 39 -6.8% -15.7% 28% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 3% -10.5%
10% -23.8% 3% -19.0%
15% -31.1% 3% -26.9%
20% -37.9% 3% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage490d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 22 $53 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $20 −$1 -4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $33 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $11 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $25 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $26 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $26 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $58 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $51 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $54 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $82 +$2 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $26 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $68 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $307 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $39 −$1 -3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $62 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $50 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $34 −$8 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $30 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $13 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $33 −$4 -13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $54 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 12 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 11 $6 +$3 +54%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
UNC Asheville vs. Radford Mar 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $28 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $28 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $2 24h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $20 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $28 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $28 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $28 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $28 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $28 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $28 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $25 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $21 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $4 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $9 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $17 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $15 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $7 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records