Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:58:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6F 0x6fbc…8bf1 other 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,090 (+1%) realized +$1,090 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate21%28W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$1,423per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$15
14 days−$30
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$1,110
politics 33% −$74
sports 14% +$41
economics 2% −$6
world 2% −$6
culture 2% −$4
crypto 1% +$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 29 -4.1% -13.3% 10% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 88 +1.3% -8.3% 9% 5% -9.6%
all 134 +2.4% -7.4% 21% 14% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 14% -9.0%
10% -16.2% 14% -17.7%
15% -24.3% 13% -25.7%
20% -31.7% 12% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,178) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$12 · ×6.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$398
Realized+$1,090
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses28 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage129d
Avg bet$1,423
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $399 $398 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 22 $474 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2,631 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,628 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,511 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,818 −$3 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,365 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $4,863 −$5 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $1,273 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,303 −$4 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,266 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,337 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 07 $74 −$74 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 05 $84 +$69 +83%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,388 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $3,218 −$4 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,788 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $347 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $575 +$1 +0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 01 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,732 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $3,083 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $848 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $3,386 −$4 -0%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? May 23 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $1,503 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,067 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,542 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,065 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $5,339 −$6 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $2,448 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,525 −$2 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,815 −$3 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $4,660 −$5 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,547 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $3,167 −$4 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 03 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,608 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $2,959 −$4 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $1,304 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $1,290 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $3,677 −$4 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 28 $1,302 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $473 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $474 4h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $461 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $462 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $641 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $642 3d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $384 3d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $385 4d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $569 4d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $570 4d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $847 5d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $848 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,074 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,076 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $985 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $987 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $399 10d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,274 10d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,276 10d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,345 10d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,347 11d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,271 11d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,273 11d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,154 12d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,156 12d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,264 12d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,266 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $886 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $887 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,335 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $398.38 · official $398.38 (match) · 457 history records