Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:24:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fbe…526f crypto 635 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$225 (-3%) realized −$225 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate82%519W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$235
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +0.5% -9.1% 90% 29% -6.2%
≤30d 21 +0.5% -9.1% 90% 29% -6.2%
≤90d 503 -7.5% -16.3% 82% 24% -12.4%
all 635 -4.0% -13.1% 82% 29% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 29% -11.9%
10% -21.4% 10% -20.4%
15% -29.0% 5% -28.1%
20% -36.0% 2% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$225
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses519 / 116
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)635 / 635
History coverage92d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 635 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $53 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $49 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $47 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $44 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $42 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $32 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $27 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $34 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $22 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $33 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 24 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 24 $41 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 24 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 24 $35 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 24 $32 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 24 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 24 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 24 $38 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 24 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 24 $33 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 24 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 24 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 24 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 24 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 24 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 24 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 14 $20 −$19 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 14 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 14 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 14 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 14 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 14 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 12 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 12 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 12 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 09 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 09 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 09 $11 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $42 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $40 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $36 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $32 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $27 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $24 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $22 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $27 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $23 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $19 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $30 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $46 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $41 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $35 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $32 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.00 · official $65.00 (match) · 1658 history records