Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:28:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fc2…b287 crypto 637 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 132d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,776 (-16%) realized −$3,776 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%333W / 523L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 133d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,662
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-39.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 328 -75.8% -78.1% 15% 15% -86.1%
≤30d 712 -34.7% -40.9% 35% 33% -51.1%
≤90d 713 -34.7% -40.9% 35% 33% -51.1%
all 856 -32.6% -39.1% 39% 38% -37.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.1% 38% -37.5%
10% ← realistic here -44.9% 33% -43.5%
15% -50.2% 20% -48.9%
20% -55.1% 14% -54.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$28 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,776
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses333 / 523
Open positions0
Markets (closed)856 / 637
History coverage133d ⚠
Avg bet$37
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 856 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$7 +304%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$30 -111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $17 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $8 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $17 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $16 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $7 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $15 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $17 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records