Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:34:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fc8…d0db crypto 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$838 (-3%) realized −$765 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate67%53W / 26L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$329now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$267
14 days−$347
30 days−$435
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$336
sports 10% +$116
other 10% −$235
economics 4% −$73
politics 4% −$294
world 1% −$23
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -6.2% -15.1% 22% 0% -18.3%
≤30d 25 -8.6% -17.3% 24% 12% -15.2%
≤90d 25 -8.6% -17.3% 24% 12% -15.2%
all 79 -2.1% -11.4% 67% 13% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 13% -12.1%
10% -19.9% 5% -20.5%
15% -27.6% 3% -28.2%
20% -34.7% 1% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$623) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$68 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$329
Realized−$765
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses53 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage207d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? Yes 67¢ 55¢ $402 $329 −$73 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 25 $142 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–S Jun 25 $149 $0 -0%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 24 $119 −$10 -8%
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? Jun 22 $13 −$1 -5%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $775 −$55 -7%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $623 −$99 -16%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $500 −$68 -14%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 20 $388 −$35 -9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $135 −$1 -1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $670 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $450 $0 -0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $199 −$56 -28%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Jun 11 $9 $0 -2%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Jun 11 $140 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $200 −$10 -5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $191 −$13 -7%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House Jun 11 $14 $0 -1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 11 $83 −$13 -16%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $493 +$15 +3%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $279 +$31 +11%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $496 +$84 +17%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $493 +$52 +11%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $163 −$66 -41%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $192 −$192 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Dec 07 $150 −$143 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Dec 07 $50 +$35 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Dec 07 $550 −$301 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Dec 07 $250 +$45 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Dec 07 $60 +$17 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Dec 07 $100 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Dec 07 $250 −$162 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Dec 07 $100 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Dec 07 $40 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Dec 06 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Dec 06 $30 −$6 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Dec 06 $11 +$5 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Dec 03 $1,738 −$400 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Dec 02 $1,071 +$11 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Dec 02 $1,048 +$23 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Dec 02 $993 +$54 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Dec 02 $974 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Dec 02 $964 +$10 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Dec 02 $914 +$50 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Dec 02 $905 +$9 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Dec 02 $874 +$30 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Dec 02 $855 +$20 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Dec 02 $842 +$13 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Dec 02 $821 +$21 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Dec 02 $760 +$61 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O SELL No 46¢ $13 59m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O SELL No 46¢ $280 59m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–S SELL No 61¢ $149 1h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–S BUY No 60¢ $90 2h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–S BUY No 60¢ $59 2h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O SELL Yes 55¢ $236 12h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O SELL Yes 56¢ $2 27h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O SELL No 47¢ $30 28h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY Yes 67¢ $637 31h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY No 44¢ $309 31h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY Yes 62¢ $53 31h
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? SELL Yes 61¢ $12 3d
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 40¢ $353 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 42¢ $388 4d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $175 4d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $184 4d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $189 4d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $554 4d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $45 4d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $40 4d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $113 4d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $129 4d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $123 4d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $0 4d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $335 4d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $1 4d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $123 4d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $26 4d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $88 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $329.26 · official $329.26 (match) · 344 history records