Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:15:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6F 0x6fc9…6126 world 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4,150 (+16%) realized +$4,176 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$1,733per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$10,443now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,328
7 days+$2,328
14 days+$2,397
30 days+$3,602
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% +$3,715
other 4% +$528
finance 3% −$104
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +28.7% +16.4% 100% 100% +16.4%
≤30d 3 +26.9% +14.8% 100% 100% +17.8%
≤90d 10 +6.5% -3.7% 70% 60% +15.6%
all 13 +7.7% -2.5% 77% 62% +14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 62% +14.7%
10% -11.9% 23% +3.7%
15% -20.4% 8% -6.3%
20% -28.2% 0% -15.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$428 vs −$40 · ×10.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×35.32 per $1 lost it wins $35.32
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$10,443
Realized+$4,176
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage128d
Avg bet$1,733
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 63¢ 62¢ $10,439 $10,421 −$18 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 29 $8,111 +$2,328 +29%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 19 $409 +$69 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $3,425 +$1,205 +35%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,107 +$536 +48%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting? Apr 24 $400 +$9 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 01 $598 −$52 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 01 $30 −$17 -56%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $492 +$70 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 01 $48 +$7 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 31 $175 −$52 -30%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting? Mar 21 $111 +$22 +20%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $513 +$19 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 25 $99 +$12 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 63¢ $7,280 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $6,072 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $997 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $3 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $37 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $2,046 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $396 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $25 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1,914 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $417 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $620 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1,037 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $370 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $576 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $408 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $710 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $1,420 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $4,626 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 61¢ $8 52d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? SELL Yes 78¢ $8 52d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 64¢ $112 53d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? SELL Yes 80¢ $112 53d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 71¢ $1,483 53d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 72¢ $179 53d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 84¢ $21 55d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 78¢ $1,622 56d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 81¢ $359 65d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,442.51 · official $10,442.51 (match) · 65 history records