Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:02:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fcd…42f2 sports 1043 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 165d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$871 (-1%) realized −$871 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate45%467W / 574L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$285est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$512
14 days−$512
30 days−$396
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$1,246
other 18% +$116
crypto 1% −$84
world 1% −$22
economics 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -53.4% -57.8% 20% 20% -46.2%
≤30d 100 -23.4% -30.7% 35% 35% -25.5%
≤90d 468 -7.8% -16.6% 39% 39% -13.5%
all 1041 -4.2% -13.3% 45% 34% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 34% -11.3%
10% -21.6% 33% -19.8%
15% -29.2% 31% -27.6%
20% -36.1% 29% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$37 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$871
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses467 / 574
Est. fees paid−$285
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1041 / 1043
History coverage166d ⚠
Avg bet$61
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1041 Trades
no open positions (82 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs AM Gaming (+1.5) Jun 23 $21 +$18 +86%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $48 +$66 +140%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $45 −$44 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $19 −$19 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $29 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 21 $17 −$16 -98%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $21 −$21 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $26 +$33 +124%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 +$37 +165%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $27 +$33 +123%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $25 +$30 +118%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $25 +$26 +101%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-1 Jun 19 $16 +$35 +219%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: 3DMAX (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5) Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5) Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs The Huns Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 19 $69 −$69 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 19 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $60 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $52 +$48 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs AM Gaming (+1.5) SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $40 2h
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs AM Gaming (+1.5) BUY Inner Circle Esports 53¢ $21 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $48 16h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 37h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 13¢ $20 43h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 48¢ $19 44h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 8¢ $8 45h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $25 46h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 48¢ $29 46h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Virtus.pro 33¢ $17 2d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 42¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 37¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 37¢ $6 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $23 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $26 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $22 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $60 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $27 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $55 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 49¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 45¢ $25 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 15¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 61¢ $20 3d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Vitality 42¢ $21 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 62¢ $11 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 62¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 62¢ $7 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 59¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 59¢ $33 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records