Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fd2…32d5 crypto 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,023 (-36%) realized −$8,882 · open −$141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%36W / 44L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 34% +$5,331
politics 30% −$7,451
other 28% −$4,694
finance 4% −$1,100
world 4% −$1,086
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +11.7% +1.1% 74% 58% -8.5%
≤30d 38 -10.7% -19.2% 58% 45% -14.2%
≤90d 38 -10.7% -19.2% 58% 45% -14.2%
all 80 +2.3% -7.5% 45% 39% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 39% -41.9%
10% -16.3% 36% -47.5%
15% -24.4% 29% -52.6%
20% -31.8% 25% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +20% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$286 vs −$436 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$8,882
Unrealized−$141
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses36 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage150d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $151 $10 −$141 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $41 +$22 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $46 +$60 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $27 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$30 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 28 $24 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$10 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 28 $34 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $18 +$16 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $77 −$59 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 27 $76 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $27 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$12 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 27 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$49 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$95 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $190 −$188 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $136 +$157 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$41 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $183 +$113 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $147 +$33 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $182 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$71 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $111 +$39 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $192 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $59 −$27 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $50 −$23 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$2 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13? Mar 23 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 14 $408 −$304 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 13 $147 −$42 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 13 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 13 $100 −$87 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 13 $150 −$148 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 12 $80 +$161 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 12 $90 +$47 +52%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 10 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Feb 16 $140 +$45 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Feb 14 $100 +$47 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Feb 14 $100 −$99 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $18 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.43 · official $10.43 (match) · 208 history records