Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:01:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fd2…2f0c world 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate33%35W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$11
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$19
other 25% −$39
sports 9% +$1
politics 8% −$1
economics 3% $0
finance 2% −$4
culture 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.7% -8.0% 56% 11% -8.4%
≤30d 34 +0.9% -8.7% 47% 3% -9.1%
≤90d 61 -0.3% -9.8% 39% 2% -9.9%
all 106 -0.8% -10.2% 33% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses35 / 71
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)106 / 108
History coverage303d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $103 $103 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $99 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $113 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $208 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $142 −$2 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $97 +$11 +11%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $96 +$1 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $112 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $52 +$3 +5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $91 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $89 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $117 +$2 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $110 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $416 −$1 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $29 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $145 +$3 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $287 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $88 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $89 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $42 +$3 +7%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $102 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $120 −$1 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $168 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $110 −$4 -4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $94 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $184 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $94 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $30 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $90 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $97 +$4 +4%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 18 $94 −$3 -3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $34 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $99 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $3 $0 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $4 $0 +5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $198 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 +6%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $298 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $110 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $95 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $108 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $253 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $78 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $25 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $99 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $99 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $114 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $113 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $28 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $72 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $82 38h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $45 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $49 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $90 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $17 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $27 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $61 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $88 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $19 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $108 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $107 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $106 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.88 · official $103.32 (match) · 561 history records