Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fd4…4fa0 other 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$5,959 (-26%) realized −$125 · open −$5,327
Gross ROI / mkt -84% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip
Net edge-86%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,093per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$17,455now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$125
14 days−$125
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$4,358
politics 27% −$972
other 21% −$81
sports 10% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-85.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -84.4% -85.8% 0% 0% -85.8%
≤30d 1 -84.4% -85.8% 0% 0% -85.8%
≤90d 1 -84.4% -85.8% 0% 0% -85.8%
all 1 -84.4% -85.8% 0% 0% -85.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -85.8% 0% -85.8%
10% -87.2% 0% -87.2%
15% -88.4% 0% -88.4%
20% -89.6% 0% -89.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -84% · $-wt -84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$125 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$17,455
Realized−$125
Unrealized−$5,327
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1 / 11
History coverage12d
Avg bet$2,093
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 66¢ $6,050 $5,203 −$847 (-14%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $3,093 $3,031 −$62 (-2%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 61¢ 24¢ $7,021 $2,701 −$4,320 (-62%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $2,200 $2,159 −$41 (-2%)
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No 87¢ 84¢ $1,705 $1,662 −$43 (-3%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1,500 $1,479 −$21 (-1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $1,000 $1,005 +$5 (+1%)
Natural Disaster in 2026? No 75¢ 76¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will Greece recognize Palestine before 2027? No 85¢ 88¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 10 $148 −$125 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $64 13m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $937 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $244 6h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $217 7h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $321 8h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $25 12h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $1 12h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $28 12h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $129 12h
No one announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 34h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 75¢ $3,116 38h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $408 40h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $647 41h
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $80 42h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $9 42h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $132 47h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $132 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $1,750 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $2,073 3d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? SELL Yes 10¢ $23 4d
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $292 4d
Will Greece recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $8 4d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY Yes 63¢ $18 5d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY Yes 63¢ $130 5d
Natural Disaster in 2026? BUY No 75¢ $203 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $2,213 6d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $605 6d
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $1,333 6d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,500 6d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $202 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,455.18 · official $17,455.18 (match) · 38 history records