Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:16:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6F 0x6fd6…e1f5 sports 45 markets active 3h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$23 (+13%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate64%29W / 16L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$9
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$22
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +11.3% +0.7% 61% 52% +2.0%
≤30d 45 +10.6% +0.1% 64% 51% +1.7%
≤90d 45 +10.6% +0.1% 64% 51% +1.7%
all 45 +10.6% +0.1% 64% 51% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 51% +1.7%
10% -9.5% 42% -8.0%
15% -18.3% 33% -16.9%
20% -26.3% 24% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses29 / 16
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage14d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1 $0 +22%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $6 +$1 +17%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 $0 -13%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$2 +32%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$3 +213%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +77%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$1 +8%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +60%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +30%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 +$3 +182%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$2 +98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6 +$3 +45%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$1 -15%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$2 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$3 +102%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$7 +74%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $3 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $6 +$1 +10%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2 +$2 +119%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $3 +$1 +44%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4 −$3 -89%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $11 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $1 +$1 +70%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $6 +$5 +75%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $11 −$4 -33%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $11 +$2 +15%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $7 +$2 +34%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $5 +$2 +40%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $2 −$2 -94%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $2 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $1 $0 -23%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $3 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 15¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 15¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 34¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 18¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 32¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 14¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 71¢ $7 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 60¢ $6 7h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 25h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $2 26h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $1 28h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 30¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 33¢ $1 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $1 3d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 95¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 63¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 56¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 96¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 51¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 60¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 52¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 90¢ $9 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 83¢ $8 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $3 4d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 64¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 37¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records