Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:24:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6F 0x6fd8…e7d4 sports 467 markets active 9h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$16 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%229W / 224L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$16
14 days+$22
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1
weather 4% −$10
other 2% −$14
crypto 1% −$7
culture 0% −$4
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +3.3% -6.5% 52% 52% -2.1%
≤30d 257 +3.7% -6.2% 57% 56% -3.1%
≤90d 453 -3.6% -12.8% 51% 50% -11.4%
all 453 -3.6% -12.8% 51% 50% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 50% -11.4%
10% -21.1% 48% -19.9%
15% -28.7% 41% -27.6%
20% -35.7% 30% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses229 / 224
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions14
Markets (closed)453 / 467
History coverage65d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 453 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Minnesota Lynx 70¢ 78¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire PortlandFire 58¢ 60¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 51¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Las Vegas Aces 74¢ 74¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier Riyadh Falcons 44¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier Toronto KOI 43¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Washington Mystics 60¢ 54¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier Boston Breach 32¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 61¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier Toronto KOI 18¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 155 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $3 +$2 +67%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $3 +$2 +70%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $3 +$3 +97%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $3 +$1 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $3 +$3 +83%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 +$7 +365%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $3 +$3 +101%
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $3 +$3 +90%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $2 +$4 +216%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $22 +$10 +45%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $3 +$3 +90%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $5 +$1 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +101%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $2 +$2 +101%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $2 +$3 +129%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 13 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $3 +$1 +44%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 Jun 12 $3 +$1 +38%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 12 $3 +$1 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +65%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 12 $9 +$9 +99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $3 +$17 +550%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 206.5 Jun 11 $3 +$1 +38%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 9h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Boston Breach 32¢ $3 11h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY Riyadh Falcons 44¢ $3 11h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY Toronto KOI 43¢ $3 11h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S BUY Toronto KOI 18¢ $1 11h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 58¢ $3 11h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 74¢ $3 11h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 60¢ $3 11h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $3 11h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 70¢ $3 13h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $3 13h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $3 13h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 69¢ $3 13h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ $3 13h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY PortlandFire 11¢ $1 36h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 54¢ $3 36h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $2 36h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 20¢ $2 36h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 18¢ $2 36h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 36h
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage BUY LuneX Gaming 47¢ $3 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $3 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $3 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $3 2d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 36¢ $3 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 59¢ $3 2d
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo 26¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.78 · official $40.88 (match) · 862 history records