Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:16:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6F 0x6fe2…576c crypto 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$459 (+17%) realized +$459 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate47%30W / 34L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$19
crypto 43% +$377
politics 8% −$7
other 6% −$11
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -9.6% -18.2% 42% 37% -16.1%
≤30d 27 -18.1% -25.9% 37% 30% -18.5%
≤90d 64 -15.4% -23.5% 47% 30% +3.2%
all 64 -15.4% -23.5% 47% 30% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 30% +3.2%
10% -30.8% 25% -6.7%
15% -37.5% 19% -15.7%
20% -43.6% 11% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$6 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$459
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses30 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage63d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$27 -89%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $118 −$14 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $34 +$9 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $28 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$3 +45%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$3 -67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$2 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$2 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$2 -30%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 28 $1 +$3 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 24 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 19 $26 −$12 -47%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 19 $14 +$13 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 19 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9PM ET May 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 16 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 02 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 30 $8 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 30 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 30 $16 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 30 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Apr 30 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 30 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 30 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 29 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 29 $2 $0 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 29 $4 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 21m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $30 23m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $33 31m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $33 32m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $42 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 85¢ $9 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $7 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 165 history records