Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6F 0x6fe6…ac4a other 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$16
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$28
politics 15% −$4
tech 5% −$1
sports 5% +$21
economics 5% −$2
culture 4% −$1
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -40.1% -45.8% 0% 0% -19.3%
≤30d 17 -11.9% -20.3% 12% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 102 +0.2% -9.3% 13% 8% -9.6%
all 104 +0.2% -9.3% 12% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 8% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 8% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 7% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)104 / 107
History coverage93d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $158 $159 +$1 (+1%)
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $333 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $322 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $68 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $92 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $441 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $270 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $255 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $242 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $240 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 16 $462 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $240 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $238 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 13 $226 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $408 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $243 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $408 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 07 $237 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $487 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 05 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $245 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $409 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $246 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? May 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $245 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $235 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $231 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $432 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $246 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $237 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $244 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $232 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $239 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 16 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $249 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $226 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $231 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 3d
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 3d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 3d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 4d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $6 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $9 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $158 7d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 10d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 10d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 17d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 17d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 18d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 18d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 19d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 19d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $32 20d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $32 21d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 22d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 22d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 23d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 23d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $28 24d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $68 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.56 · official $225.56 (match) · 314 history records