Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:32:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fe6…af2b other 31 markets active 10h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$2
other 35% −$11
sports 13% +$1
politics 13% +$2
finance 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.6% -10.0% 38% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 8 -0.6% -10.0% 38% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 20 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -9.7%
all 31 -9.8% -18.3% 39% 6% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 6% -10.0%
10% -26.2% 3% -18.6%
15% -33.3% 3% -26.5%
20% -39.8% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage522d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $31 +$1 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $32 −$1 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $33 −$1 -4%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $105 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $24 −$1 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $13 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $43 $0 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $232 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $255 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $239 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $234 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 10 $234 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $233 +$1 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Apr 07 $3 $0 +5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Stuttgart? Feb 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the match between Feyenoord Rotterdam and Bayern Munich end in a Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump inauguration be the most viewed ever? Jan 22 $0 $0 -100%
Trump deportation executive order on Day 1? Jan 22 $5 +$3 +72%
TikTok on the App Store again by Monday? Jan 20 $1 $0 +20%
Will the match between Tottenham and Liverpool end in a draw? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 9h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 12h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $32 15h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 20h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 20h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 27h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 27h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $13 35h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $18 35h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $5 37h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $9 37h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $17 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $20 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $13 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $31 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $30 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $32 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $32 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records