Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fe7…e853 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$6
other 36% −$5
weather 2% $0
sports 2% $0
politics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.9% -10.3% 25% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 15 +1.6% -8.1% 33% 7% -10.8%
≤90d 15 +1.6% -8.1% 33% 7% -10.8%
all 33 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 3% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 3% -11.2%
10% -24.5% 3% -19.7%
15% -31.8% 0% -27.5%
20% -38.5% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage478d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $2 $0 +7%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $42 −$4 -10%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $105 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $1 $0 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $75 −$2 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $41 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $45 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 25 $8 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $1 $0 +2%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 24 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Abdul Carter? Apr 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Dwight Howard make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get 34-38m viewers? Mar 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 4? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Nets vs. Spurs Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $39 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 6h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $38 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 58¢ $42 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $24 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $15 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $39 29h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 36h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 36h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $18 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $21 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $26 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $12 20d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 21d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $21 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $21 21d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 22d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $34 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.70 · official $39.70 (match) · 107 history records