Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:01:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fea…334a crypto 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$267 (-12%) realized −$267 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%31W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$21
14 days+$15
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$305
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -19.2% -26.9% 50% 50% +12.5%
≤30d 25 -12.3% -20.6% 48% 48% +4.1%
≤90d 75 -3.5% -12.7% 41% 40% -23.4%
all 75 -3.5% -12.7% 41% 40% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 40% -23.4%
10% -21.1% 36% -30.7%
15% -28.7% 29% -37.4%
20% -35.7% 27% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$19 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$267
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses31 / 44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage84d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $18 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $42 +$39 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$5 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 05 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 04 $14 +$26 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 04 $30 +$23 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 04 $24 +$32 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 04 $12 +$8 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 04 $9 +$6 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 25 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 25 $9 +$10 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 25 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 22 $83 −$78 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 22 $325 +$80 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 22 $270 +$30 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 22 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 22 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 22 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 22 $44 −$44 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 22 $44 +$15 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 22 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 22 $67 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 22 $9 −$6 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 22 $253 −$238 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 22 $142 +$114 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 22 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 22 $32 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 22 $14 +$9 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 16 $6 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $8 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $14 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $15 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 343 history records