Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:51:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6F 0x6fec…d1a7 sports 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-6%) realized −$69 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%88W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$153
7 days−$131
14 days−$95
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$76
other 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -13.2% -21.4% 47% 41% -30.0%
≤30d 185 -6.4% -15.4% 48% 44% -15.5%
≤90d 185 -6.4% -15.4% 48% 44% -15.5%
all 185 -6.4% -15.4% 48% 44% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 44% -15.5%
10% -23.5% 44% -23.6%
15% -30.8% 40% -31.0%
20% -37.6% 37% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$69
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses88 / 97
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions7
Markets (closed)185 / 192
History coverage26d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Saigon Warriors 60¢ 100¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+68%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 56¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 60¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 62¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 45¢ 46¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BetBoom Team 48¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Saigon Warriors 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $7 +$2 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$2 +57%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$3 +82%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$3 +79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$4 +109%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division P Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 +$4 +59%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 +$5 +128%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$3 +52%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $6 +$9 +152%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$3 +134%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9 +$3 +37%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$3 +86%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$4 +97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$4 +105%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$2 +46%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$7 +146%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$12 +235%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$9 +172%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 52¢ $1 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 61¢ $6 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 57¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 56¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $4 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 100¢ $10 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $6 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 57¢ $5 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $7 9h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $6 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $6 17h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $7 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $3 17h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $7 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $9 19h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 63¢ $4 20h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $10 20h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $9 20h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $9 20h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $4 20h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $4 21h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $6 21h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 65¢ $6 22h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 40¢ $4 22h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 39¢ $6 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.34 · official $40.34 (match) · 338 history records