Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:49:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fec…4c72 crypto 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-1%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%57W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$23
14 days−$56
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$96
other 6% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -14.5% -22.6% 56% 50% -11.4%
≤30d 115 -20.6% -28.2% 50% 44% -16.0%
≤90d 115 -20.6% -28.2% 50% 44% -16.0%
all 115 -20.6% -28.2% 50% 44% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 44% -16.0%
10% -35.0% 31% -24.0%
15% -41.3% 20% -31.3%
20% -47.1% 14% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses57 / 58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)115 / 115
History coverage17d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 115 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $52 −$20 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $22 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $31 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $22 +$24 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $42 +$23 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $51 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$10 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 28 $42 −$19 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$11 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $17 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $13 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.60 · official $56.60 (match) · 276 history records