Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fef…5104 crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,771 (-56%) realized −$2,189 · open −$585
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate66%23W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% −$2,528
crypto 21% +$39
other 13% −$250
sports 2% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -19.7% -27.3% 66% 29% -56.4%
≤30d 35 -19.7% -27.3% 66% 29% -56.4%
≤90d 35 -19.7% -27.3% 66% 29% -56.4%
all 35 -19.7% -27.3% 66% 29% -56.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 29% -56.4%
10% -34.3% 20% -60.6%
15% -40.6% 6% -64.4%
20% -46.4% 6% -67.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$198 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$2,189
Unrealized−$585
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses23 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)35 / 40
History coverage6d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 39¢ 4¢ $588 $57 −$531 (-90%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 28¢ 100¢ $5 $18 +$13 (+261%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $78 $14 −$64 (-82%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 74¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+44%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 77¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $125 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $201 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $111 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$10 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $79 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$6 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +25%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $167 +$7 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$4 +15%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $2,478 −$1,933 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 8m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.50 · official $98.50 (match) · 124 history records