Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6F 0x6ff1…e743 sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$122 (+2%) realized +$128 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%20W / 19L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$179
7 days−$110
14 days−$110
30 days+$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$366
sports 40% +$495
politics 3% +$31
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -10.0% -18.5% 52% 45% -11.0%
≤30d 39 -2.8% -12.0% 51% 44% -7.5%
≤90d 39 -2.8% -12.0% 51% 44% -7.5%
all 39 -2.8% -12.0% 51% 44% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 44% -7.5%
10% -20.4% 31% -16.3%
15% -28.1% 26% -24.4%
20% -35.2% 21% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$79 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized+$128
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses20 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage20d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Egypt 64¢ 62¢ $257 $251 −$6 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $162 +$98 +61%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $55 +$56 +102%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $27 −$17 -63%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $305 −$232 -76%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $402 −$48 -12%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $211 +$194 +92%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $19 −$15 -81%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $133 −$130 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $201 −$86 -43%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $71 −$53 -75%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $112 +$52 +46%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $144 −$135 -93%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 +$11 +11%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 $0 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $604 +$103 +17%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $304 +$123 +40%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $604 +$103 +17%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $102 +$99 +97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $11 −$2 -16%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $592 +$89 +15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $203 −$5 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $363 +$252 +70%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $101 +$56 +55%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $529 −$427 -81%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $406 −$239 -59%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $602 +$68 +11%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $130 +$35 +26%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $30 −$4 -13%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 30 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $102 +$282 +276%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $66 −$47 -72%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $260 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 99¢ $260 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 79¢ $113 1h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 29¢ $112 1h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 14¢ $55 2h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 2h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $27 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 11¢ $73 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 40¢ $49 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $305 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 73¢ $354 15h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes $0 15h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $402 15h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 42¢ $405 15h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $4 16h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $19 16h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 16h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 19¢ $133 16h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 45¢ $115 16h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 15¢ $18 16h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $71 18h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $201 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 18h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 100¢ $109 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $162 18h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 92¢ $100 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.76 · official $250.76 (match) · 87 history records