Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:15:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6F 0x6ff6…e4fb weather 715 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$562 (+2%) realized +$490 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate67%467W / 233L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$451now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$181
14 days−$30
30 days−$417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$269
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 -6.6% -15.5% 63% 46% -4.5%
≤30d 626 -5.7% -14.7% 65% 45% -11.4%
≤90d 700 -4.1% -13.2% 67% 45% -8.8%
all 700 -4.1% -13.2% 67% 45% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 45% -8.8%
10% -21.5% 33% -17.5%
15% -29.1% 24% -25.5%
20% -36.1% 17% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$29 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$451
Realized+$490
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses467 / 233
Open positions15
Markets (closed)700 / 715
History coverage61d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 700 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 21? No 34¢ 100¢ $35 $103 +$68 (+194%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 21? No 63¢ 100¢ $41 $65 +$24 (+59%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 21? No 76¢ 100¢ $45 $60 +$15 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 21? No 82¢ 100¢ $48 $58 +$10 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 21? No 71¢ 100¢ $39 $55 +$16 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21? No 60¢ 64¢ $42 $45 +$3 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? No 82¢ 74¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? No 57¢ 100¢ $8 $13 +$6 (+74%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? No 74¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? No 92¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 21? No 96¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 21? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? No 84¢ 1¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 21? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 133 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 20? Jun 21 $39 +$34 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $25 +$40 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $22 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $14 +$5 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $41 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $46 +$21 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $7 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $43 +$10 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $24 +$30 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $43 +$15 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $40 +$16 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $37 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $30 −$29 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $28 −$27 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 19? Jun 20 $35 +$17 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $45 −$44 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 +$15 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $9 +$3 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $7 +$3 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $11 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $27 +$7 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $41 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$7 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $31 +$7 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $24 −$23 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 −$44 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $13 +$19 +141%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $33 +$49 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $43 +$14 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $44 +$26 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $27 +$6 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY No 82¢ $40 12m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 60¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 84¢ $40 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 74¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 34¢ $36 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 57¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 39¢ $30 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 92¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 76¢ $46 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 82¢ $48 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 71¢ $40 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 63¢ $42 9h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 50¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 46¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 20? BUY No 52¢ $39 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $14 19h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 39¢ $31 19h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 19h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 88¢ $22 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 62¢ $30 20h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 19¢ $41 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 36¢ $28 22h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 68¢ $46 23h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $41 23h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 32¢ $10 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $450.75 · official $448.06 (match) · 1300 history records