Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6F 0x6ff8…ad59 crypto 801 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (198 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$427 (-2%) realized −$442 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%385W / 563L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day198.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,136
7 days−$1,288
14 days−$1,629
30 days−$1,629
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$431
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (198 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 457 -27.4% -34.3% 33% 27% -18.2%
≤30d 948 -13.4% -21.6% 41% 32% -15.4%
≤90d 948 -13.4% -21.6% 41% 32% -15.4%
all 948 -13.4% -21.6% 41% 32% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover198.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.6% 32% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 26% -23.5%
15% -36.0% 23% -30.9%
20% -42.2% 16% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$442
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses385 / 563
Open positions1
Markets (closed)948 / 801
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day198.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 948 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 52¢ 86¢ $23 $38 +$15 (+65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 219 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$20 -3897%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$10 -1970%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $9 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $9 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $32 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $9 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $9 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $9 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $30 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $13 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $15 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $22 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $34 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $47 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $7 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.24 · official $22.14 · 3500 history records