Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:14:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6ffa…bc19 other 14 markets active 1d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$139 (-45%) realized −$139 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$106
world 7% −$20
crypto 7% −$20
sports 4% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-45.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -40.2% -45.9% 36% 36% -50.3%
≤30d 14 -40.2% -45.9% 36% 36% -50.3%
≤90d 14 -40.2% -45.9% 36% 36% -50.3%
all 14 -40.2% -45.9% 36% 36% -50.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.9% 36% -50.3%
10% -51.1% 36% -55.0%
15% -55.8% 29% -59.4%
20% -60.2% 21% -63.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$22 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $17 +$9 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 +$4 +29%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$8 -41%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 +$5 +46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 −$7 -52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $57 −$57 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $26 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $17 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 77¢ $13 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 37¢ $12 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $11 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $57 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records