Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:41:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6F 0x6ffc…1e9f other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,704 (+6%) realized +$3,704 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$5,281per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 89% −$10
sports 9% +$3,737
other 3% −$15
tech 0% −$15
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -7.8% -16.6% 29% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 7 -7.8% -16.6% 29% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 7 -7.8% -16.6% 29% 0% -11.3%
all 11 +1.9% -7.8% 27% 9% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 9% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 9% -13.0%
15% -24.7% 9% -21.4%
20% -32.1% 9% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,246 vs −$6 · ×204.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×87.57 per $1 lost it wins $87.57
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,704
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage104d
Avg bet$5,281
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $179 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $849 −$12 -1%
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 28 $122 +$2 +2%
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 28 $125 −$2 -2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $237 −$2 -1%
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 Jun 24 $29 −$15 -53%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Jun 24 $20 $0 +2%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $25,841 −$10 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Mar 18 $8,604 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $17,127 $0 +0%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 18 $4,964 +$3,737 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $178 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $179 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $41 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $42 7h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 64¢ $124 11h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 63¢ $122 11h
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 41¢ $123 13h
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 41¢ $125 34h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 81¢ $163 37h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $164 37h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $90 37h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $74 38h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $166 38h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $34 38h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $34 39h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $30 44h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 45h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $30 47h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $92 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $78 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $171 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $38 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $38 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $19 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records