Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:52:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6F 0x6ffc…29ba crypto 1407 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,084 (-33%) realized −$7,067 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%485W / 958L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day123.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$142
other 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1313 -11.6% -20.0% 30% 30% -33.6%
≤30d 1443 -7.8% -16.6% 34% 33% -22.8%
≤90d 1443 -7.8% -16.6% 34% 33% -22.8%
all 1443 -7.8% -16.6% 34% 33% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover123.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 33% -22.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 33% -30.2%
15% -31.9% 33% -37.0%
20% -38.5% 33% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$15 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$7,067
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses485 / 958
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1443 / 1407
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day123.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1443 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Down 51¢ 34¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-32%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Down 52¢ 34¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $196 −$196 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $0 +$1 +200%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $25 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $25 5m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $29 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $29 11m
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $17 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $33 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $36 25m
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $22 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $32 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $32 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 46m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 51m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $15 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $33 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $33 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $23 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.47 · official $40.71 · 3500 history records