Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:48:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6ffc…74a8 crypto 198 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21 (+3%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate94%187W / 11L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$16
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$15
other 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 189 +2.4% -7.3% 94% 9% -7.5%
≤30d 198 +3.2% -6.6% 94% 13% -7.2%
≤90d 198 +3.2% -6.6% 94% 13% -7.2%
all 198 +3.2% -6.6% 94% 13% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 13% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 8% -16.1%
15% -23.7% 5% -24.2%
20% -31.2% 4% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses187 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)198 / 198
History coverage11d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 198 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 503 history records