Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:24:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6F
0x6ffd…a637
other · 381 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$18,238 +41%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$14,548 · open −$433
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$21,221
Realized+$14,548
Unrealized−$433
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses160 / 283
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions264
Markets (closed)443 / 381
Avg bet$116
Trades / day88.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit41%
Chart Positions 264 History 443 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,890
7 days+$8,499
14 days+$8,236
30 days+$13,232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Yes 21¢ 40¢ $1,324 $2,478 +$1,154 (+87%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? Yes 20¢ 41¢ $1,127 $2,344 +$1,217 (+108%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? Yes 15¢ 37¢ $869 $2,148 +$1,280 (+147%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? Yes 8¢ 18¢ $464 $1,114 +$650 (+140%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $667 $659 −$8 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 74¢ $613 $589 −$24 (-4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June? No 81¢ 79¢ $502 $491 −$12 (-2%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 51¢ 95¢ $256 $481 +$225 (+88%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $488 $460 −$28 (-6%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $757 $451 −$305 (-40%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 62¢ 97¢ $278 $430 +$152 (+55%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 46¢ 51¢ $379 $423 +$44 (+12%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 38¢ 8¢ $1,772 $398 −$1,374 (-78%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $232 $363 +$131 (+57%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 31¢ 60¢ $187 $362 +$176 (+94%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June? No 88¢ 85¢ $335 $325 −$10 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 56¢ 42¢ $436 $325 −$111 (-26%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $556 $325 −$232 (-42%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $309 $304 −$5 (-2%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 23¢ 41¢ $156 $287 +$131 (+84%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $338 $257 −$81 (-24%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $154 $209 +$55 (+36%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 92¢ 98¢ $184 $197 +$13 (+7%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $417 $195 −$222 (-53%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 97¢ $157 $190 +$32 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.3% by March 31? Jun 12 $3 +$11 +370%
Will Cagliari win on 2025-11-03? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $340–355 in 2025? Jun 12 $13 −$12 -98%
Nancy Pelosi Index Up or Down: Week of November 24 Jun 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Lazio win on 2025-11-03? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 12) Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.50–3.75 in November? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $2.25 million Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Google reach $330 in March? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $250–265 in 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jensen Huang say "GPU" 5+ times at the NVIDIA GTC keynote? Jun 12 $15 −$14 -99%
Will Hudson Williams attend the Oscars? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Amazon reach $240 in January? Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February? Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Powell say "Volatile" during March press conference? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 12 $5 −$7 -134%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Infinex FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $440–460 in 2025? Jun 12 $33 −$29 -89%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of March 20 Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$299 +6030%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 12 $93 +$77 +83%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in April? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Trump say "Pulitzer Prize" in March? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tesla reach $518 in November? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Amazon dip to $196 in December? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $355-$360 on the final day of trading of Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190-$195 on the final day of trading of t Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at >$320 on the final day of trading of the Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0%? Jun 12 $21 −$24 -116%
Bitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December? Jun 12 $23 −$20 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on December 24? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Jun 12 $8 −$9 -108%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,725-$4,850 in January? Jun 12 $4 −$26 -586%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$14 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 67% +$14,351
finance 18% +$399
world 8% −$42
tech 7% +$544
crypto 1% −$73
economics 0% +$27
politics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USD/JPY hit 120 (Low) in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $30 42m
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June? SELL No 84¢ $64 55m
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in June? BUY No 87¢ $18 55m
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in June? BUY No 87¢ $96 56m
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? BUY No 89¢ $49 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $24 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 1h
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2 SELL Yes 58¢ $12 10h
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $13 10h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $6 11h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 42¢ $28 11h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? SELL Yes 62¢ $37 11h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? SELL Yes 63¢ $9 11h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? SELL Yes 65¢ $407 11h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 12¢ $6 11h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 11h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? BUY No 88¢ $12 11h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $69 11h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $29 11h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $56 11h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 11h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 11h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $65 11h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 20¢ $13 11h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $45 11h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 250 +39.6% +26.3% 22% 20% +92.5%
≤30d 416 +49.7% +35.5% 35% 28% +41.2%
≤90d 443 +52.3% +37.8% 36% 29% +43.3%
all 443 +52.3% +37.8% 36% 29% +43.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover88.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +37.8% 29% +43.3%
10% ← realistic here +24.6% 25% +29.6%
15% +12.5% 23% +17.1%
20% +1.5% 20% +5.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,221.32 · official $21,220.94 (match) · 3500 history records