Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:52:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7000…f60c crypto 371 markets active 1d ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32 (-7%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%190W / 181L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$44
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -11.4% -19.9% 54% 42% -16.7%
≤30d 230 -4.6% -13.7% 57% 47% -13.6%
≤90d 338 -10.0% -18.6% 53% 42% -17.8%
all 371 -10.1% -18.6% 51% 41% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 41% -18.0%
10% -26.4% 33% -25.8%
15% -33.5% 22% -33.0%
20% -40.0% 14% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses190 / 181
Open positions0
Markets (closed)371 / 371
History coverage260d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 371 Trades
no open positions (77 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 844 history records