Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:25:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

70
0x7001…edbe
world · 87 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$144
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses27 / 57
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)84 / 87
History coverage319d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 3 History 84 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $143 $143 +$0 (+0%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 83¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $157 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $156 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $237 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $162 −$7 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $12 +$3 +28%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $159 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $146 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $127 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $143 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $146 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $165 +$6 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $90 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $129 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $104 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $30 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $505 −$12 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $159 +$9 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $302 −$1 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $159 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 20 $144 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $158 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $144 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $433 +$1 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $302 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $142 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $436 +$1 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $142 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $143 +$1 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $441 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $282 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $155 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $59 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $284 $0 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $141 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $294 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 13 $157 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $300 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $286 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $222 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $299 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $157 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $53 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 39% +$3
politics 25% −$2
other 23% $0
sports 9% $0
crypto 3% −$3
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $143 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $157 5h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $157 7h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $56 44h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $100 44h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $156 45h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $13 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $31 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $31 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $15 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $24 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $30 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $47 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $94 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $155 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $162 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 5¢ $15 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $159 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $159 3d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 8d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $144 8d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $143 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 9d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 17% -9.7%
≤30d 27 +1.5% -8.2% 44% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 75 +0.8% -8.8% 36% 3% -9.5%
all 84 +0.7% -8.9% 32% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.5%
10% -17.6% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.72 · official $142.65 (match) · 375 history records