Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:14:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7001…2aba crypto 133 markets active 4d ago coverage 81d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,959 (-25%) realized −$7,959 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate15%48W / 278L
Whale WR9%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day42.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 81d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,470
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 223 -56.6% -60.7% 8% 7% -81.8%
≤30d 264 -48.7% -53.6% 12% 11% -68.1%
≤90d 326 -38.6% -44.5% 15% 14% -64.7%
all 326 -38.6% -44.5% 15% 14% -64.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.5% 14% -64.7%
10% ← realistic here -49.8% 14% -68.1%
15% -54.6% 14% -71.2%
20% -59.1% 13% -74.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 9% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
21.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$418 vs −$249 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,959
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses48 / 278
Whale WR (big bets)9%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)326 / 133
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$240
Trades / day42.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 326 Trades
no open positions (286 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 29? Jun 18 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $553 −$553 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 19? Jun 18 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1PM ET Jun 18 $2,012 −$2,012 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 26? Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 30? Jun 18 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7AM ET Jun 18 $1,048 −$588 -56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 3? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $691 −$691 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 26? Jun 18 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $370 −$370 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 24? Jun 18 $276 −$276 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8AM ET Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $978 −$978 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 25? Jun 18 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 31? Jun 18 $3,887 −$3,887 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 30? Jun 18 $323 −$323 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 26? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 6AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 2? Jun 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 3? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $257 −$257 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $373 −$373 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2PM ET Jun 18 $1,489 −$1,390 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $306 −$306 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2PM ET Jun 18 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 4AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 20? Jun 18 $121 −$121 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $47 +$47 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $70 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $34 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records