Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T15:08:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
70 0x7004…a778 sports 247 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,196 (+6%) realized +$3,426 · open +$770
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%143W / 100L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Fees−$848est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$297
7 days−$103
14 days−$1,346
30 days−$264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$1,802
other 2% +$693
crypto 1% +$1,240
finance 0% −$50
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -7.7% -16.5% 47% 47% -10.7%
≤30d 198 +6.2% -3.9% 58% 58% -9.9%
≤90d 243 +6.9% -3.3% 59% 59% -5.3%
all 243 +6.9% -3.3% 59% 59% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.3% 59% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -12.6% 53% -14.4%
15% -21.0% 43% -22.7%
20% -28.7% 33% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$157 vs −$198 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$1,333
Realized+$3,426
Unrealized+$770
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses143 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$848
Open positions4
Markets (closed)243 / 247
History coverage39d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 100T make a roster change before August? Yes 31¢ 81¢ $409 $1,058 +$648 (+158%)
Will Aurora make a roster change before July? Yes 35¢ 68¢ $142 $271 +$129 (+91%)
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D KUUSAMO.gg 59¢ 83¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+41%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 4 Winner KOLESIE 45¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $209 −$209 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $214 +$286 +134%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 20 $118 −$118 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 20 $310 +$184 +60%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $494 +$132 +27%
Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs xept (+1.5) Jun 20 $131 +$22 +16%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $247 −$244 -99%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - ESEA European F Jun 19 $219 −$69 -32%
Map Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs EAC Rising (+1.5) Jun 19 $204 +$96 +47%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $186 −$186 -100%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $412 −$9 -2%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $111 −$111 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $453 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $1,870 −$370 -20%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $219 +$124 +57%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $526 +$174 +33%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 17 $365 −$91 -25%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $301 +$141 +47%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $1,173 +$147 +12%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$36 +36%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $119 −$118 -99%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $29 +$39 +131%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $444 +$114 +26%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $55 +$45 +82%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Gro Jun 14 $41 +$9 +22%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $112 +$88 +79%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $124 −$124 -100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $26 +$203 +795%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $348 −$347 -100%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $584 −$130 -22%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $246 +$54 +22%
Counter-Strike: Minkens finest vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $50 +$33 +66%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $449 +$251 +56%
Counter-Strike: Minkens finest vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $310 +$37 +12%
Map Handicap: OLDBOYS PL (-1.5) vs Donstu Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $200 −$197 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $228 +$72 +31%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $106 +$94 +88%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $142 +$58 +41%
Counter-Strike: Gaming By Legends vs Saab (BO1) - ROG Journey Group A Jun 12 $234 +$66 +28%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $431 −$431 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $254 −$250 -98%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) Jun 12 $121 −$121 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $358 −$148 -41%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 12 $433 +$59 +14%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $190 −$187 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $82 +$60 +73%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $103 +$47 +46%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $52 +$33 +64%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof Jun 12 $240 +$160 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D SELL KUUSAMO.gg 66¢ $98 1h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D SELL KUUSAMO.gg 68¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D SELL KUUSAMO.gg 70¢ $117 1h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D SELL KUUSAMO.gg 70¢ $77 1h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D SELL KUUSAMO.gg 68¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D SELL KUUSAMO.gg 68¢ $43 2h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D SELL KUUSAMO.gg 69¢ $62 2h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY KUUSAMO.gg 70¢ $206 2h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY KUUSAMO.gg 48¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY KUUSAMO.gg 48¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY KUUSAMO.gg 48¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY KUUSAMO.gg 48¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY KUUSAMO.gg 48¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY KUUSAMO.gg 48¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY KUUSAMO.gg 48¢ $29 2h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY KUUSAMO.gg 48¢ $22 2h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY KUUSAMO.gg 48¢ $45 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 4 Winner BUY KOLESIE 45¢ $8 3h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner BUY KOLESIE 58¢ $128 4h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner BUY KOLESIE 58¢ $17 4h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $62 4h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 59¢ $118 40h
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY Phantom 62¢ $310 44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $214 46h
Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs xept (+1.5) BUY Clutchain 43¢ $129 2d
Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs xept (+1.5) BUY Clutchain 40¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B SELL xept 30¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B SELL xept 30¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY xept 37¢ $185 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,332.64 · official $1,332.64 (match) · 1118 history records