Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:29:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7004…a3dd other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$236 (-39%) realized −$235 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$149
30 days−$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$220
sports 3% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-49.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 19 -44.4% -49.7% 37% 37% -51.6%
≤90d 19 -44.4% -49.7% 37% 37% -51.6%
all 19 -44.4% -49.7% 37% 37% -51.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.7% 37% -51.6%
10% -54.5% 32% -56.3%
15% -58.9% 26% -60.5%
20% -63.0% 21% -64.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$27 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$235
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage17d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$11 +27%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 9d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 9d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 9d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 9d
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 9d
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 10d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 10d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 11d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 11d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 13d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 26¢ $41 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 78¢ $40 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.61 · official $48.61 (match) · 29 history records