Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7007…eede crypto 396 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$498 (-6%) realized −$570 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate64%254W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$50
14 days+$50
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$442
other 1% −$126
finance 1% +$2
world 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +5.1% -4.9% 88% 29% -4.8%
≤30d 80 +5.1% -4.9% 88% 29% -4.8%
≤90d 296 -7.4% -16.3% 68% 35% -18.5%
all 396 -6.0% -15.0% 64% 32% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 32% -15.6%
10% -23.1% 17% -23.6%
15% -30.5% 9% -31.0%
20% -37.3% 4% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$570
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses254 / 142
Open positions0
Markets (closed)396 / 396
History coverage99d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 396 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Who will finish higher: Russell or Antonelli? Russell 45¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $44 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $23 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $20 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $22 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2222 history records